Among Adventists, I frequently observe a pessimistic perception of the world and society--that it is getting worse. This is not an official doctrine, but it is hinted at by Adventist writers, teachers, and preachers. To them, the world is getting worse and will continue to worsen until Christ's second coming to rescue us. This belief is generally reinforced anecdotally among many church members, and it is closely related to their perception that the world is a hostile place (at least to us, our values, and our faith). Too many Adventists view the world through ecclesiocentric glasses.

Rather than rely merely upon anecdotes (the September 11 tragedy, bad storms, the occasional earthquake, etc.), we might more usefully seek a more empirical assessment of the world around us. Today many statistics are available, even in a time-series format (thus revealing general trends) on government and academic web sites. Many of these give us light on areas of education, economics, public health, wealth, quality of life, and other measures of social and moral significance.

Natural world

First, we might look to the natural world for indicators of a worsening condition. While some fundamentalist Christian groups (and their web sites) and even some Adventist preachers assert that earthquakes are becoming more frequent, there is no credible evidence to support this in any of the academic circles or government experts. While we see some year-to-year variations in the number of major earthquakes worldwide, these fluctuations are well within statistically normal bounds.

The extinction of obscure species of plants and animals, currently decried, has been going on for a very long time. Other than the understandable effects of industrialization and pollution from human sources, we see nothing in the natural world getting worse.

Health

A second major area of interest to Adventists is public health. A key measure of health is average life expectancy, which in America has been climbing steadily (and continues to climb today) since the turn of the century. Not only are Americans healthier, but many populations overseas are also. This is a partial result of improved diet and understanding of nutrition, better sanitation, and improved healthcare delivery. Worldwide, we see a decline in infant mortality. Less sorrow there.

We see a decline in new cases of many communicable diseases in the U.S., including AIDS, gonorrhea, and tuberculosis. We must, however, acknowledge the increase of AIDS in many "third world" nations, particularly in Africa. In a number of the major causes of death, such as heart disease and cancer, we see actual declines in the U.S. The prevalence of diabetes is increasing, reflecting the rise in percentage of Americans who are overweight (by any measure or definition). But over all, Americans are healthier and are living longer.

Risky behavior (particularly smoking and consumption of alcohol) in American adults is declining. Indeed, tobacco in America is a declining market, in terms of cigarette sales and acreage of tobacco under cultivation. Consequently, the tobacco industry is finding its growth in markets overseas, particularly in Asia. While only 26 percent of adult males in the U.S. smoke, in Kenya 67 percent do so, and in the Philippines 75 percent.

Risky behavior by teens is also declining. In the United States, teen substance abuse (smoking, alcohol, and illicit drugs) has been declining over the past 10 years. This is a good thing! The number of students who had sex before age 13 has gone down. Similarly, the teen birth rate is declining significantly.

Economics and education

In economic terms, Americans are much better off today than in any previous time (in spite of inflation and unemployment). We have more real disposable income, we live in larger homes, more of our homes are air-conditioned, and more of us have second (vacation) homes. Although we drive with greater safety (deaths per million miles driven are in steady decline), unfortunately Americans in urban areas have seen increases in their average time wasted in rush-hour commuting. We breathe cleaner air, with a significant drop in the amount of lead in our atmosphere. These are all quality-of-life issues, and except for commuting, the general trend is positive.

In the area of knowledge, literacy rates are improving worldwide--in all continents. In the U.S., we see a steady rise in the proportion of people who graduate from high school and college. In 1960, only 40 percent of the U.S. adult population had completed high school. That figure had risen to 84 percent in the year 2000. We see a similar trend for college completion. For a church where literacy (and the ability to read the Bible) is important, this is good news.

In the area of human rights and dignity, Adventism places a high value on personal freedom. Institutional Adventism is more critical of the labor movement than are many individual members. While labor union membership in the public sector in the U.S. hovers about 37 percent, we see a steady decline (to 9 percent) in the private sector. Good news for conscientious Adventists.

Altruism in America may be increasing, as indicated by a modest but distinct increase in the portion of disposable personal income people donate to charitable and religious organizations.

There are some negatives in American society and culture that do concern me. One is the significant increase in gambling (I am amused at the increasing use of the word "gaming," which attempts to remove some of the stigma). Total gambling industry revenue (Nevada, Atlantic City, riverboats and Indian lands) has grown from $34 billion in 2000 to an estimated $40 billion in 2003. I believe this has significant social consequences.

Crime is a concern for many people, and it is an indicator of the total social fabric. With the rising incarceration rate in the U.S. (the prison population has gone from 1.1 million to 1.7 million in 8 years), we do see a general decline in violent and property crime in the U.S. (One cannot necessarily conclude a cause-effect relationship here, however.) The anecdotal nature of sensational news stories tends to mask this decline in crime. Perhaps related to this, the cost of the criminal justice system (police, courts, and corrections) is consuming a greater share of the gross domestic product (from 1.15 percent in 1985 to 1.58 percent today). Since 1993, the number of rapes has been declining. While the overall rate of crime is decreasing, there are still substantial regional variations; for example, Florida has a per-capita violent crime rate that is ten times that of North Dakota.

Many Christians decry a loosening of morals in America, as reflected in the content of the media (violence and the trivialization of sexuality) and in actual popular personal behavior. In 1990, of all babies born in the U.S., 26 percent had unwed mothers; that rate has gone up to 33 percent today. Of course (and this is beyond the scope of this discussion) that varies significantly among ethnic and socioeconomic groups. While the teen pregnancy rate in America is declining somewhat, it is still much higher than in most western European countries.

We see a widespread erosion of ethics in business in nearly all industries. Yet, while there have been some spectacular bankruptcies recently (e.g., Enron), the trend of business bankruptcies has been downward, while the trend of personal bankruptcies is increasing substantially. I think this reflects, in part, an erosion in personal morals and ethics and an increase in irresponsible behavior.

Not only are many of these trends indicators of an improved quality of life, but with increasing wealth, particularly, we have more options. Modern transportation and communications allow the exchange of ideas (yes, and communication of the gospel) with greater ease and speed. Is this explosion of communications capacity changing the world for the better? That is not entirely clear, but the potential is there.

Trends of Steady Processes vs. Impending Catastrophe

Most of the trends I have cited are in statistics describing the processes and collective behavior they represent that are somewhat stable in nature--the sum of many personal and individual behaviors and experiences. However, there are some trends in society that are more difficult to measure, such as emotional stress and insecurity.

Additionally, I would posit that western civilization is in ever-increasing risk of cataclysmic events which would substantially reduce our quality of life. The United States, for example, has increased its dependency upon imported oil from 32 percent back during the oil "crisis" of the 1970s, to nearly 67 percent today. Personal savings in America is precariously low, while consumer credit has increased substantially, in proportion to personal income. We see rising religious tensions, particularly in the Arab and Muslim parts of the world. However, I would advise Adventist preachers not to try exploiting these tensions to scare their audiences, since to do so would also risk their introducing racial and religious intolerance.

Finally, with the modern mobility of western society, the spread of a virulent communicable disease could be much quicker, with potentially deadly consequence.

Conclusion

When Adventist preachers and authors make assertions about the world that are not consistent with the empirical evidence, they risk undermining the credibility of the church they represent. While there are many social and ethical trends that are negative, the vast majority of the measures of quality of life show improvement. We as a church must be well informed and realistic in how we describe the world in evangelistic rhetoric and in our internal homilies.

Though the question of the ongoing deterioration or improvement of the world may have theological overtones, including the necessity for the coming advent of Jesus, we may need to look for other reasons to explain our expectations of his return.